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Scioto Downs / Saturday, August 22, 2026

Trip Model

Placement is how far forward a horse sits through the whole mile, class-weighted. Contention is whether he is on the lead or inside your threshold at the 3/4. Blend them, or split them apart to see which horses get there and which ones finish.

Load a card

or drop a program PDF here

Race — 16 on the card

      ▾Blend & model settings
    

Placement Contention 50 / 50

Placement — calls counted

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Win

Class weight avg purse ÷ today Cap it

Cap 1.50×

Contention — the 3/4 pole

Within 3.0 L Curve 1.7

Credit parked-out calls Adjust for today's post

Parked call worth 1.2 L Post shift 0.22 L

Form basis — how much a bad trip counts

Average of lines Best line 60% toward best

Shortening the stretch

Credit the breather

Lengths per second 5.0 Worth 1.5 pts/L Debit a wasted gift 0.50

Market

Price the model against the board Waples: contention band = 4L Class off best line, not average Weight driver & trainer

Connections weight 0.35

Model only Trust the board 35% market

Spread 0.85 β Value at EV ≥ +0.05

Which past lines count — applies to both halves

Today's track only Drop ½-mile ovals Drop broken / distanced lines

Within 120 days Keep last 3 starts

Scioto Downs, Saturday Aug 22 — full 16-race card, 136 horses, parsed from sci822.pdf.